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Writer's pictureCoralie Englebert

Are Robotaxis Driving Uber and Lyft Out of Business?

If you’ve been catching rides in Phoenix or Los Angeles recently, you might have noticed something futuristic cruising past — driverless taxis. Waymo One, Alphabet's autonomous taxi service, is making waves, offering over 100,000 paid rides weekly across cities like Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. But while these robotaxis might sound like something out of a sci-fi movie, they’re leaving a less-than-glamorous impact on the real lives of Uber and Lyft drivers.


The Clash of Humans vs. Machines

For Uber and Lyft drivers like Jason D. in Phoenix, earning a living was already a tough gig. Now, the arrival of driverless taxis has made it even more competitive. With lower fares, fewer tips, and rising costs, many drivers are feeling squeezed as robotaxis flood the market. "Driverless taxis are taking money from human drivers" Jason lamented, describing an already oversaturated environment.


But Waymo’s expansion isn’t stopping. The service is planning to roll into Austin and Atlanta next year, aiming to be accessible directly via the Uber app. While regulatory red tape and safety concerns might slow their advance, experts predict that driverless rideshares are here to stay — and they’ll likely keep chipping away at human drivers’ income.


Why Robotaxis Are Gaining Traction

So, what’s driving the demand for robotaxis? For one, they’re often cheaper than traditional rideshare options. Riders curious about the driverless experience might be enticed by lower costs, although comparing prices isn’t always straightforward due to factors like promotional offers and tipping.


Additionally, some passengers see robotaxis as a safer alternative. After all, they don’t get tired, emotional, or distracted. But for drivers like Jason, who sees these vehicles as unpredictable road hazards, safety remains a divisive issue.


“I’ve seen them signal left and right before suddenly cutting across multiple lanes of traffic” - Jason

Human Drivers’ Secret Weapon: Airports

Despite the growing presence of robotaxis, human drivers aren’t entirely out of options. Restrictions on where autonomous vehicles can operate provide a glimmer of hope. For instance, in Los Angeles, robotaxis are largely limited to shorter, local rides, leaving lucrative airport trips in the hands of human drivers.


Brad, a full-time Uber driver in LA, said, “The most profitable rides are airport runs. And robotaxis aren’t allowed there yet.”


But in Phoenix, where Waymo One has started offering airport pickups, drivers like Jason are already feeling the pinch. Airports are the bread and butter for many drivers, and losing this turf to autonomous vehicles could spell trouble for their bottom line.


Are Robotaxis a Passing Trend or the Future of Rideshare?

While experts like Carl Benedikt Frey from Oxford University argue that robotaxis haven’t significantly impacted driver earnings yet, they warn the storm is coming. As the technology becomes cheaper and more widespread, traditional rideshare drivers are likely to feel the squeeze.

“We’ve seen this movie before,” Frey said. “When Uber first entered the scene, traditional taxi drivers saw their earnings drop by about 10%. The same could happen here.”



The Road Ahead

For now, human drivers are holding their ground — but the rise of autonomous vehicles is reshaping the landscape. With companies like Waymo and Lyft investing heavily in driverless technology, the battle for passengers is far from over.


The question is: Will regulatory roadblocks and lingering safety concerns slow the robotaxi revolution, or are we on the fast track to a future where human drivers take a backseat?

One thing’s for sure: The competition is heating up, and for many Uber and Lyft drivers, it’s a bumpy ride ahead.


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This project is supported by EIT Urban Mobility, an initiative of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), a body of the European Union. EIT Urban Mobility acts to accelerate positive change on mobility to make urban spaces more liveable.

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